Tesla Shareholder Meeting - Elon Q&A
Here are the most pertinent points from the Tesla Shareholder Meeting
Here are the most pertinent points from the Tesla Shareholder Meeting as reported by myself live… it is rough and ready but wanted to get it out first.
I wrote a detailed live X Thread also HERE - but here are the biggies
New Chapter: Elon Musk stated, "We are not starting a new chapter - we are starting a new book."
Elon on Market Caps - Bears Repeating ELON MUSK JUST NOW DURING THE TESLA 2024 SHAREHOLDER MEETING: "It is conceivable that Tesla achieves a $30T market cap just based on Optimus and Autonomy alone. Optimus will probably be $25T and FSD will be $5T. I agree with Cathie Wood's $ARKK model for an $8T marketcap by 2029."
Safety of FSD: Elon mentioned that no car with Full Self-Driving (FSD) will exceed human safety.
Optimus Robot: Tesla built everything for the Optimus robot from scratch, and it will be able to play the piano.
Elon Musk just said he thinks next year Tesla $TSLA will have a few thousand Optimus robots working internally at Tesla
Optimus Capabilities: Optimus can teach, babysit, perform factory tasks, and will be a superhuman helper. The projected ratio is at least 2 to 1, with a potential build rate of 10 to 20 billion bots per year.
Optimus Personality: Optimus will have a personality, a large language model (LLM), customizable voice, and will get to know its owner.
Robotaxi Fleet: A software update could transform the entire fleet into robotaxis, increasing usage from 10 hours a week to 50-60 hours a week.
Market Cap Projections: Elon believes Tesla could achieve a $30 trillion market cap based on Optimus and Autonomy alone, with Optimus contributing $25 trillion and FSD $5 trillion. He agrees with Cathie Wood's ARK model predicting an $8 trillion market cap by 2029.
4680 Cell: The 4680 cell is a challenging but crucial component for Tesla, especially for the Cybertruck, providing manufacturing efficiency and geopolitical resilience.
Ark Invest Analysis: Ark Invest's analysis is considered the most accurate, predicting a $5 trillion valuation based on vehicle autonomy alone, not counting Optimus Bot.
Cybercab Concept: Tesla plans to introduce Cybercabs, which can be owned by Tesla or individuals, generating income while the owner is away.
Elon's Role: Elon emphasized his role as an innovation accelerant, crucial for achieving the $30 trillion market cap.
FSD Transfer: The FSD transfer process adds complexity to sales, but it will continue for one more quarter.
Inflection Point: Elon mentioned that Tesla is at an inflection point to become the most valuable company on earth, with a $7 trillion market cap by 2029.
Trump's Support: Donald Trump expressed his support for Tesla and Elon Musk.
AI and Chip Development: Elon spends significant time with the Tesla AI team, focusing on self-driving technology and overcoming challenges in chip design and data storage.
Battery Day Goals: Tesla aims for 1 TWh of battery production, despite market challenges and cost reduction efforts.
Supercharger Network: Tesla is opening its Supercharger network to other EV companies, providing adapters to promote EV growth.
Optimus Market Cap: The potential market cap for Optimus alone could be $20-25 trillion.
Cybertruck Production: The foundation series of Cybertrucks will end soon, with non-foundation series starting next quarter.
Hardware Upgrades: Tesla will continue with HW3 but will begin HW4, which offers significantly better resolution and performance. HW5 will be even more advanced and will be used in Optimus.
Engineering Excellence: Tesla boasts the best electrical, software, and mechanical engineering teams, essential for scaling manufacturing and real-world AI.
Auto Accident Reduction: Tesla is focused on reducing the 40,000 annual auto accident fatalities in the USA.
Real-World AI Leadership: Tesla is the leader in real-world AI, with advanced chip design and inference capabilities, referred to as "Baby AGI."
These points highlight Tesla's ambitious plans and technological advancements discussed during the shareholder meeting.
My TWEET Thread in the raw:
🧵#Tesla Shareholder Meeting - Key Notes - a thread live
ELON: "We are not starting a new chapter - we are starting a new book"
🧵 Elon "no Q car w FSD will exceed human safety "
🧵#Tesla Shareholder Meeting - ELON: "Cybercab - some owned by Tesla, some owned by owners like Air BNB - one tap on app and car makes money for you while you go on vacation"
🧵#Tesla Shareholder Meeting - ELON: "Cybercab will happen - if I was not optimistic this factory would not exist"
🧵#Tesla Shareholder Meeting - ELON: "pathologically optimistic from birth - but I do deliver in the end! That is the imp thing!"
🧵#Tesla Shareholder Meeting - ELON: "Ark invest analysis is most accurate - predicted $5T valuation just on Vehicle autonomy not counting Optimus Bot"
🧵#Tesla Shareholder Meeting - ELON: "We will 10x the company - that will happen" IA adds $1850 share price if a 10x happens
🧵#Tesla Shareholder Meeting - ELON: "Optimus can teach, baby sit, do factory stuff, ultimate ratio of super human helper droids c3po + r2d2 and everyone will want one and in industry - RATIO will be at least 2 to 1" so at least 10bn maybe 20bn to 20bn Bots. Bn a year build rate"
🧵#Tesla Shareholder Meeting - ELON: "If tesla have 10% share = 100m bots per year - make one for cost of 10K at high scale - sell it for 20K tesla would make $1T of profit per year on that. PE multiple 25 = 20T mkt cap and 5-10t from Autonomy - value of 10x most valuable co today"
🧵#Tesla Shareholder Meeting - ELON: "Starting a new book - well it is going to be the best book - next level - and nice to us"
🧵#Tesla Shareholder Meeting - ELON: "Customers saved 20 tonnes in carbon emissions, up from 13 tonnes in 2022. Autonomy will make cars have 5 times more usage which will impact emissions even more"
🧵#Tesla Shareholder Meeting - ELON: "our factories are nice, people smile in them. we care a lot about doing the right thing."
🧵#Tesla Shareholder Meeting - ELON: "Batteries lasting longer, safety good in factory. improving affordability Model Y has half the TCO of an X3 BMW. #1 in EVs last year"
🧵 ELON: "Team made 6m vehicles so far and will be over 7m cars made by end of year. Fremont highest vol factory in North America. #Cybertruck now shipping 1300 a week"
🧵#Tesla Mtg ELON: "how can u tell if a product is cool? Ask a kid. They love Cybertrucks. looks like the future and drives so well. Best product. How often do companies make prods that move your heart?"
🧵 Elon "Model 3 launched. Only $216 after gas savings per month. A great deal and a fun car faster than the Porsche 911. Try one. Model y best selling vehicle on Earth.: Tesla Semi low vol prod and approved plans for Vol Production of Tesla Semi - will make a lot of them"
🧵 Elon "Tesla Semi will move the needle financially. Companies that use them are super objective - they need to save money - cost less to transport. Period. Economics are MUCH better than Diesel Truck."
🧵 Elon "NEW PRODUCTS: 3 new cars under covers. Just wait - they will be amazing"
🧵 Elon "Tesla #Supercharger network continues to grow - 58,000 sites, and will deploy more chargers this year than the rest of the industry combined. 🤯. Will be more careful about cap efficiency, focus on map and needs - spending 500M on supercharger deployment"
🧵 Elon "opening supercharger to other companies - goal to help other EV car companies. GIving them adaptors and network - better than a walled garden that inhibits EV growth"
🧵 Elon "Tesla #4680 is a hard problem. All #Cybertrucks use 4680 cell and it will be the most competitive cell from a mfg efficiency standpoint - hard problem and brings a lot of brain damage but gives tesla resilience in geopolitical situation."
🧵 Elon "Got cathode factory, lithium refinery, Tesla are nite and day compared to the competition. We are going very vertical here. Will pay off more than folks realize"
🧵 Elon "#Megafactory capacity going for 40 gwh - 3 to 4x year over year growth. Limiting factor is more powerwall and megapacks. Takes 3 iterations for it to be special. Megapack iteration 2 now. #3 is 2 years away. Plan to remove substations. Utility industry disruption incoming"
🧵 Elon "making money on services - half a bn a year"
🧵 Elon "much more than a car company. Tesla is as much a software company as it is a hardware company and it matters a lot eg autobidder, the cars, the megapacks, power walls, AI, FSD, Insurance, Services, core enterprise systems, etc"
🧵 Elon "Tesla is the leader in real-world AI - nobody even close taking in video and making decisions," he calls it Baby AGI. Tesla is also good at Chip Design eg in car in inference chip, AI 5 is new in car chip... just finished design. No chip on earth we would prefer to what we build ourselves"
🧵 Elon "HW3 will continue but HW4 will begin - southside of Giga Factory - Hw4 cameras have 4-5x better resolution and is 3 to 8x better and have more to go to limits HW3. HW4 will be 5 x better. HW5 will be 10x better than Hw4 next year. Same chip will go in Optimus! 🤯"
🧵 Elon "Very power efficient compute... in bot and car. HW 3 and 4 are only a few hundred watts"
🧵 Elon "HW5 will go to 700-800 watts but contingent on complexity of the scene. At some pt the tesla fleet will be 100 million cars. Each car will have 1 kw of inference compute - this will rival AWS - 100w x 100M cars = 100 gw of compute when not in autonomous mode"
🧵 Elon "AMZN book seller, did AWS and now worth more than entire rest of AMZN. It will be same for Tesla. "
🧵 Elon "No longer compute constrained for #FSD - limiting factor is we go so long without interventions ... they cannot tell - our prof test drivers get bored - go a week with no interventions"
🧵 Elon says it is "not possible to solve self-driving without millions of cars on the road." Only Tesla has this edge.
🧵 Elon "Uber + Air BNB - software update and whole fleet becomes a robotaxi fleet - and instead of being used 10 hrs a week it will be used 50-60 hours a week"
🧵 Elon "Optimus real factory work, many cruising around offices in Palo Alto, CA. One major hardware revision, then limited production for use at Tesla Factories next year. Then, they will scale rapidly after that. You can talk to it. I am confident that the ratio of Bots to HUmans will be greater than 1. Tesla will be the leader!"
🧵 Elon "re OPTIMUS Tesla built everything from scratch from first principles - everything for the bot - there is no supply chain for the spot. It will be able to play the piano"
🧵 Elon "Tesla have worlds best electrical engineering software engineering mechanical engineering and they have all the resources for Bots, they have real world AI, and inference brain. U need a strong hand of cards and also be very good at scale mfg and be good at it"
🧵 Elon "magnitude of what this bot can do - will far exceed the 5-7T market cap, Optimus is 20-25 Trillion Market Cap 🤯🤯🤯 - a lot of work to get there but we are moving very fast and will make it happen"
🧵 Elon "Society is better off by the first amendment is so important it is critical to a good future" This is re X and freedom of speech
🧵 Elon "40K killed in USA from auto accidents - Tesla is focused on making that number smaller"
🧵 Elon "inflection pt for most valuable co on earth - ark is 7 Trillion Market Cap by 2029 - in 5 years is accurate"
🧵 Elon "passenger van - will add to my list. Regarding the referral program, we will re-examine the next qtr. Program increases price of car. "
🧵 Elon "FSD transfer adds complexity to sales process - OK 1 more qtr of FSD transfer"
🧵 Elon "i need to work out and not get assassinated by someone... homicidal maniac who want to kill you is proportional to how many times they hear your name. We had 2 in the last 7 mths who tried to kill me. I will endeavor to stay alive" #ElonSafety
🧵 Elon "HVAC power efficient and buit in hepa filter... maybe control humidity be efficient and quiet that would be sweet - combine w power wall- but not high on the list"
🧵 Elon "Donald Trump said big fan of tesla and fan of you - I can be persuasive, he calls out of the blue and he is very nice - America leader and buy American and his friends have Teslas and likes Cybertruck"
🧵 Elon "to handle cybercab interventions - extreme caution around cyclists and pedestrians - need prob of hurting someone to be incredibly low. If stuck it will phone home. They can remote into the car like an RC car. "
🧵 Elon "Battery day - goal to 1 TWH of battery since battery day - GM Ford announced reductions up to 50% in EV plans. Tesla is increasing but it is not an easy market. To get cost of car down but it is not just batteries. Game of penny slicing. 10k items in a car. They see path to cost parity by end of year. batteries are like DRAM chips"
🧵 Elon "when will #Cybertruck be sold internationally? Built for USA - they will need to make a special smaller version for other markets. Need to achieve vol prodn first. Note they are pumping out 1300 a week now. Scaling is hard, reducing cost is mega pain. Prototypes are fun. Cost grind is hell"
🧵 Elon Demand is off the hook all over the world for the #Cybertruck need to recertify the car for other markets
🧵 Elon "how many Cybertruck foundation series" - ending foundation series pretty soon and non-foundation series next qtr"
🧵 Elon "spends a lot of time w Tesla AI team - big part is get car to drive itself. solve things on a chip level, data storage challenges, software issues, big NVDA cluster is hard to make work in training.. massive effort to get it to work and with high uptime"
🧵 IA why is nobody asking him about #DOJO!!!
🧵 Elon "yes #optimus will have a personality, will have an LLM and customize voice, and will get to know you also. It will be hard not to have a robot buddy"
🧵 Elon "Tesla has a good future without me but I am an accelerant to that 30 trillion market cap. I am an innovation accelerant. What matters is being faster than others. A few years ahead and be better. Accel pace of tech and innovation and getting to scale"
🧵 MOST MINDBLOWING "It is conceivable that Tesla achieves a $30T market cap just based on Optimus and Autonomy alone. Optimus will probably be $25T and FSD will be $5T. I agree with Cathie Wood's $ARKK model for an $8T marketcap by 2029."
🧵 THE END