Today’s Nuggets
‘25 Bear, Base, and Bull Case
Incredible Stacking
+$5 Billion in December
SOL 2x Futures on the Way
1.7% of Crypto Delivered 100x in 10 Years
Telsa Germany is Back
Expensive Mortgages on the Rise
Global Population is Crashing
This is about what happened this week and more details about my 2025 predictions as people in the community want more as I have been asked for the bull, the bear, and the expected case for Bitcoin this run.
The last time I showed these monthly returns, Bitcoin was slightly positive, up about 2%.
Now we are in the red, down about 2.5%. Remember, only in 2017 did Bitcoin have three negative months.
This chart from Blockware got my attention as to how they approach deriving the price targets for Bitcoin.
What was intriguing to me was how they arrived at these different cases:
The Bear Case is that Trump does not follow through on a strategic Bitcoin reserve. The Fed reverses course on rate cuts and long-term holders dump everything.
The Base Case is that The U.S. holdings become the strategic Bitcoin reserve: 50K BTC or whatever the government owns. The Fed lowers interest rates at the projected rate, and corporate Bitcoin adoption continues at the current pace. Corporate treasuries are the catalyst for this bull run.
The Bull Case means the U.S. adopts the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve while also buying more Bitcoin. If you look at the whole cabinet of advisors, they are all pro-crypto across the board. Even though there is only a 40% chance the U.S. will adopt a strategic Bitcoin reserve, if it does, then the domino effect of other nations will follow. The second part is that the Fed becomes more dovish as headline CPI declines and the corporate Bitcoin adoption rate accelerates.
Many people are very depressed because Bitcoin is not north of $100,000. However, Christmas week
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