Today’s Nuggets
The Puzzle of Tesla’s Stock Price
Why Tesla Let’s MainStream Media Hammer Them
Elon Musk’s Disruptive Influence
Undervalued Stock Price
Future Dominance in Fuel Stations - Dr Analogy
AI and Machine Learning Advantage
Optimus Bot Potential
Historic Performance and Value Proposition
Retail Investor Loyalty
Employee Retention
Comp Plan
Faster than F1 in 2025
Tesla is a unique and special company. They continue to share the most mind-blowing news, yet the stock price is not where it should be.
I will break that down and try to figure out why…I think I cracked the code!
When the price drops, my brain thinks now is the time to buy something really good, really cheap. Recently, I was talking with Alexandra Merz, and I told her about my third buy under $200. She responded that she hoped the price would remain low in order for her to buy more.
Tesla is a symbol of massive technological disruption. Everything Elon touches is disruptive—AI, the robot on wheels (EVs), the Optimus bot, energy storage, etc.
Elon has built the only force in the EV market today. BYD does not have Tesla's technology or manufacturing process. Nor do they invest in FSD. They hammer cars together manually with cheap labor!!! That is the BYD model.
Tesla will not be a conventional company, it is just not how they operate. It is almost as if they want to keep the price down.
The all-time price of the stock was over three years ago.
The stock was priced at $106 at the beginning of 2023.
Royal Bank of Canada’s article on their price target for Tesla was published today which prompted me to break down the analysts' forecasts.
Here is a list of Tesla analysts from Tasha Keeney from ARK Invest all the way down to Gary Black from the Future Fund. If you averagethese top analysts, you get an avg price of $355.79. ARK Invest has a price forecast of $792, and no firm has researched Tesla like ARK.
Key retail players are listed in the chart above. Their average price target is just shy of 500 bucks at $499.54.
The problem for Wall Street is that they have pigeonholed Tesla into an automotive play. They are completely confused and lost. However, retail spends thousands of hours understanding precisely what this company is made up of and where it is going. This is why I place a lot more credence on their targets.
Let's delve into my theory on why I think the price is being artificially held down, much like trying to keep a beach ball submerged in a pool!
The low stock price drives a lot of employee retention and loyalty and incentivizes them to stay long-term.
The people on the inside know where the company is going.
Tesla and Elon Musk love the retail investor who has been with them through thick and thin. Elon admires the loyalty of retail investors who never gave up or left during the most challenging times for the company.
Elon has a lot of disdain for Wall Street, hedge funds, and investors who short the stock.
You want to avoid negotiating a new comp plan when the stock price is at all-time highs. So, for obvious reasons, you want it low, and there might also be some strategy behind all of this.
Tesla has not invested in a robust public relations team to address negative media coverage and present accurate information about the company. They allow misinformation and negative coverage to persist.
Tesla has also faced criticism regarding the safety of its vehicles, particularly with regard to its Autopilot feature. Despite this, the company has not effectively addressed these concerns, which has contributed to negative media coverage.
Elon Musk's communication style, particularly on social media, has sometimes been erratic and controversial. This has led to negative media coverage and has not helped to combat criticism effectively. I would prefer to hear the truth and be offended than know that somebody is lying to me.
In addition, Tesla does not advertise, which may contribute to a lack of positive media coverage. By not promoting its products and achievements, the company may be missing an opportunity to counteract negative media attention.
Elon Musk's actions and statements, such as his involvement in crypto and his comments on social media, have sometimes been controversial and have contributed to negative media coverage.
Tesla has faced criticism about working conditions at its factories, particularly regarding worker safety and unionization efforts as well as the environmental impact of its vehicles and product processes. The company has not effectively addressed these concerns, which has contributed to negative media coverage.
Tesla is sitting on a bunch of unrealized revenue…. which I think much of they could realize if they want and much would be high margin or pure margin rev. Examples:
Tesla does not report unaccrued revenue from its energy business.
The cars are of such good quality that the reserves for the warranties are put aside. These funds could be dumped onto earnings per share, but they do not mention it.
This line of business is not even priced into the Tesla stock price. The work they are doing with auto bidder in nations like Australia is mind-blowing. They are in a position to literally resale energy that they get on behalf of the utilities they work for.
Tesla now owns the gas stations. Almost all car manufacturers have joined their charging standard and will become clients of the Supercharger network. All other car companies are sending their cars to another fueling station. The halo effect of this alone will be insane. As a physician told me this week, “it's like me sending my patients to another doctor to get a prescription it is both fatal for my image and for my customer retention I should say patient retention!”
There is no talk of their insurmountable AI advantage. Apple had 67 vehicles they were testing for nearly a decade before they canceled their program this week. Tesla has over 5.5 million vehicles, which are driving over 50 billion miles a year. They track and see everything. It is an absolutely insurmountable advantage.
While there is not a penny of valuation coming from Tesla analysts, you have multi-billion dollar start-up competitor valuations taking place in the marketplace today.
Tesla has been developing advanced AI and machine learning technologies for its self-driving cars. This expertise can be applied to the development of robots, allowing them to navigate and interact with the environment more effectively.
Tesla has a strong background in manufacturing, particularly with its electric vehicles. This experience can be leveraged to produce robots at scale and at a lower cost.
Tesla's robots can be integrated with its existing products, such as its self-driving cars and solar panels, to provide a more comprehensive and interconnected ecosystem of products and services.
Tesla has access to vast amounts of data from its self-driving cars, which can be used to train and improve the AI and machine learning capabilities of its robots.
Tesla has a strong brand and a loyal customer base, which can help drive the adoption of its robots and other products.
When Tesla nails the bot, there will be no viable alternative. It will be Optimus or some crappy less functional higher-priced alternative.
Enter the Roadster!
Thanks to SpaceX's technological advances, the Cybertruck will be unparalleled, achieving 0-60 mph in less than a second. This will surpass the likes of Lamborghini, Ferrari, Porsche, and any other brand that prides itself on speed.
Furthermore, the Roadster is expected to be priced around $200K, making it more affordable than the aforementioned luxury brands, yet offering superior speed, safety, and the capability to drive autonomously.
Tesla's CyberTruck is already faster than a Porsche carrying a Porsche.
Why is the stock price so low, considering all of the value? And all of the insurmountable leads?
Tesla is only at level 3 of the IA ATR model, which is a multi-year time frame model that looks at the macro situation of an asset. It should be at least at level 6 given all they have done since it was last at that price. The stock is basically in the middle of the road in terms of the ATR model. Meanwhile, we are in the hyper-growth phase of an AI revolution. This is the leading player in the AI space! So why is the stock not back at all-time highs?
The good news for us is that there is a lot of upside.
The IA Layer In, Layer Out model forecasts where the stock price could go over the next 12-24 mths:
Level 7 = $403
Level 8 = $514
Level 9 = $626
Level 10 = $694
We know that we are going to level 10. The question is, when? As we saw recently, risk happens fast. In less than 24 hours, Solana went up 30%. We have also seen what NVIDIA has done.
Tesla's stock will pop. We do not know when, but we know that a lid has been kept on it.
Tesla's breakthroughs are revolutionizing conventional industries, placing the company seven to ten years ahead of its competitors. It is establishing new benchmarks across the board, from automobiles to energy storage solutions.
