Today’s Nuggets
BTC VIX at 10-Year Low
How This Time is Different
Bear Market Reminders
The New Saylor Playbook
Jack Launching New Chip
Tesla DOJO becomes AI6 DOJO3
Elon says OpenAI will Eat MSFT Alive
Binance Now Manipulating ETH
German Industrial Engine Sputtering
In this Friday Fire, I aim to demonstrate that this time is different and this cycle is distinct, supported by numerous data points.
Yesterday, the story was about how Bitcoin could reach a million dollars, and it was very well-liked. This one will be like a mini follow-up from that, but more about the seasonality of Bitcoin and how it is fundamentally very different, with still a lot of upside.
It is hard to believe that it has only been 15 years since this statement was made, and that the amount has surpassed $2 trillion.
Fifty-five million people use this puppy. For him to be able to predict such things is quite impressive.
Fifteen years later, we are now on the fifth cycle. Is this time different?
This is the question raised by James Check with CheckOnChain, which serves as the inspiration for this story. This cycle is not the same as previous cycles, that is for sure, and even the last cycle was different because it was so manipulated and so full of bad actors.
This cycle should be a bit better.
Here is the first significant difference, which is that Bitcoin has evolved.
If you look back over the last 10 years from this table created by Ecoinometrics, you will notice that every bull market came with tons of volatility spikes, especially during the sharpest upward phases. When new highs were made, big price swings were part of the game. However, in this cycle, the Bitcoin price has been steady and just trucking along. Nothing like the crazy spikes we saw back in the day.
Since 2023, Bitcoin has barely registered any big spikes. If you look at 2025, note the predominance of blue and dark blue, which indicates low volatility. We have not seen any red volatility since 2022.
If you go back to mid-2021, this is when the nasty stuff happened, and then in September, it is supposed to be bad. The last time that we had a rough September was around 2017.
However, as we go, things are getting quieter and tamer. Even as we broke out to a new all-time high, we dipped last week, and the volatility kept falling. It is now in the bottom 5% of all weekly readings over the last decade plus.
This is what happens when the big players come to town. When you have MicroStrategy stacking like a madman, the ETFs chomping all they can, sovereign states grabbing, and the miners HODLing again.
This makes the market a lot more relaxed and a lot harder for Binance to manipulate the price. They can no longer mess with Bitcoin because it is too big. If the market makers force the BTC price down to rip up shorts, maybe a big ETF will buy their bag. Therefore, they are focusing on different assets to do that.
This is a cool chart to help us discern exactly where we are in the cycle, as it plots the Bitcoin performance two years before and after the halving event.
The halving right through the middle, and it goes for two years after. If you imagine the red line is the current cycle, we are a bit over halfway through the two-year piece.
What is important to note here is that the green cycle is
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