Quick update on Tesla in advance of the annual shareholder meeting.
As far as I know, the votes should all be in and I will dig into the probability of it being passed. Now that the voting is over, we will share the data.
*Update: the major points have officially passed, including Elon’s compensation plan and Tesla’s re-incorporation in Texas.
We will also look at the new ARK price targets, what is baked into them, how probable they are, and what is missing. Love them or hate them, ARK is the best at modeling this stuff.
We will also do some calculations around if we take the ARK price targets alongside the CAGR and the ROI for those compared to the price of Tesla today. What type of Bitcoin price would we have to have by 2029 to match the Tesla performance based on ARK's prediction?
The Tesla playlist can be found here:
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWTRLGkkf1kRHwdW6ODKjHCYAkxerouiu
*Some browsers do not show their YouTube playlists, so make sure you are using the Chrome browser.
Let us begin with the comp plan and Sawyer Merritt's very eloquent thoughts, which are worth reiterating.
The answer to his question is "very messed up".
I think anybody who now is reneging on the commitment to "pay the man" should sell their Tesla stock, return all the gains that they have made, and go to hell!
Florida's pension board voted in support of Elon Musk's compensation package, saying the plan exhibits very high levels of pay for performance.
This is the opposite of the California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS), in which even the members oppose CalPERS's stance.
Florida's pension plan is Tesla's 80th largest shareholder.
Brad Gerstner from BG2 has nearly 600,000 shares and voted yes for the pay package.
Brad is one of the best capital allocators on the planet.
He understands what it takes to innovate and what it takes to reward the innovators. Brad knows how few good innovators there are on the planet.
This is from a cool video shared on Discord earlier today by Joe Bacti.
He is saying that the vote is in the bag and there is a chance of the Texas vote going the way of the board's wishes. He took 2018 and the number of people who voted yes or no versus the institutional.
Notice how retail has gone from 30% to 44% in 2024.
Per Elon Musk, 90% of retail investors have already voted in the affirmative.
Barron's said the vote for the pay package is down to the wire, but voting against it would be catastrophic for the stock. This is one reason that no vote is not likely.
Gary Black, from the Future Fund, found it puzzling that some short sellers think institutions who are long Tesla and are active fund managers would vote no on Elon's comp plan. This would almost certainly cause the Tesla stock to fall and hurt their fund's performance.
This is logic and shows you that the world is illogical for us even to be at this stage.
ARK released some new 2029 price targets for Tesla.
Elon stated, "Yes, it's extremely challenging but very achievable."
First, let us break down their 2029 price targets and how they work…
A Monte Carlo model was used to arrive at these numbers.
I am unsure why they did not factor in Tesla's humanoid robot…
Perhaps if they included them, the numbers would be so unbelievable that they would be hard to understand. The model does not include the energy storage business.
This is awesome because it is like sandbagging the model to hell.
I have been an FSD beta user with my Model X for years and the technology has blown me away!
ARK begins its report with the FSD safety feature, which is the most important feature. When you have a two-ton vehicle hurtling down the road at 80 miles, it is a lethal weapon. Therefore, you have
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