RECAP: SOL ETF WHY & WEN?

SOL to the MOON? 🚀🌕 How ETF Could EXPLODE Solana's Price! 💥💰

Jun 29, 2024

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Our community has been asking me about the Solana ETF news today, primarily about when it will happen and the price impact. I modeled it all out to supply you with price predictions so you do not have to guess. In addition, we will cover some very interesting details as to the reasons why VanEck is behind Solana. The reasons will fascinate you.

In addition, I am going to make some price predictions for Ethereum.

While Ethereum and Solana have many differences, these models will help us arrive at price targets out to 2032. I will really focus on the impact of the ETF revolution.

This is a list of highlights from the Solana news this week, provided by Mr. Mert - friend of the channel.

The obvious highlight of last week's news was the SOL ETP in Canada. These are incredibly exciting developments for the Solana Network and more is coming.

Solana has come an awfully long way off the bottom of the bear and is one of the top-performing smart contract platforms or layer-one blockchains.

The average results for all of the SCPs so far over the last year is 119%. However, Solana is up nearly 740% in that same timeframe. While Bitcoin is up 99%, and Ethereum is still lagging at only 80%.

Crypto really is becoming a thing as ETFs are coming fit, fast, and furious.

Since the Bitcoin ETF launched, it has experienced massive inflows that have exceeded everybody's expectations. Now that the ETH ETF is coming next week, it has triggered a flurry of other filings. The first one after these two is now SOL from VanEck.

This S1 filing from VanEck is the first in the box but it will probably trigger an avalanche of others in time.

Later in this lesson, I will cover some of the timing of when this will actually happen.

VanEck believes in Ethereum, but they believe the Solana blockchain is different.

It operates as a single global state machine without layer 2s, sharding, or stuff like that. Solana is designed to handle many applications, with a heavy focus on payments, trading, DeFi, gaming, and social stuff. Solana also has a unique combination of scalability, speed, and low costs that will improve the experience for many of the use cases I covered.

This is why VanEck is backing Solana big time.

In the legal cases with Ripple against the SEC, it was proven in court that not even Ripple is a security. If XRP is not a security, I do not know what is!

Let's break down this list from VanEck:

Utility in the Ecosystem: Solana is used to pay for transaction fees and computational services on the unified state machine called Solana, similar to how Bitcoin and Ether function in their respective networks.
Tradability: SOL can be traded on digital asset platforms or used in peer-to-peer transactions, highlighting its role as a tradable digital commodity.
Diverse Applications: The Solana ecosystem supports a wide range of applications, including decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), which enhance SOL's utility and value.
Decentralization: The Solana network operates without a single intermediary or controlling entity, with transaction validation and recordkeeping maintained by independent validators worldwide. When you look at the Nakamoto coefficient serving as the measure of decentralization, you find that Solana is more decentralized than Ethereum. If you can control 3 of the key validators in Ethereum, then you control more than 50% of the network. For Solana, you need to control at least 22 of the top validators to achieve this level of control. When FireDancer goes live, the Solana Network's decentralization will explode.
Commodity Characteristics: SOL's decentralized nature, high utility, and economic feasibility align with the characteristics of established digital commodities, making it valuable for investors, builders, developers, and entrepreneurs.

As usual, the ETH maxis are upset again.

I guess Kale is an ETH person who sent this to Matthew Siegel, who works at VanEck and is doing all this great stuff behind the scenes.

I thought it was hilarious and brilliant for a senior official at VanEck to say that. That is the beauty of Twitter; it creates open and honest conversations.

Legal experts say the VanEck Solana ETF filing will face many hurdles, as seen by previous attempts to list Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, including market surveillance and manipulation concerns. However, many also say such funds are inevitable.

You cannot stop the ETF train.

However, it may require a change of leadership at the SEC, and the lack of Solana's future in the CME can serve as a hurdle. Once BlackRock does a little bit more homework on why they need a global universal blockchain that can run RWA properly, then the skids will be greased.

I agree with James Seyffart's analysis.

I think the regulators will take their time but early thoughts are that it has a shot at launching sometime in 2025. This is especially true if you have a new administration in the White House and at the SEC.

Do not expect it to happen this year unless BlackRock really wants to get involved.

Maybe Brian Armstrong can catalyze this change, which I covered in this morning's video. However, I do not see Gary Gensler putting it on the fast track to approve it. However, rumor has it the ETH ETF could happen on Tuesday. If so, there is no leg to stand on to deny the SOL ETF if taken to court under no legal circumstance.

I think that Solana wants to get FireDancer up and running first, get a lot more adoption in the box, and then go for the ETF.

This is compared to Bitcoin, which brought in about $50 billion in about a year.

It is very possible to convert $15 billion into ETH in about 18 months.

I am going to apply the IA BTC multiplier to Ethereum in a simple little model here with three multipliers. I am using conservative multipliers here for this money flow.

If we assume $15 billion comes into Ethereum in 18 months, that will impact the market cap by about $300 billion. If you divide that by the number of tokens available, the impact on the price of ETH will be about $2,496.

If you add that to the current price of approximately $3,445, then you get to $5,944. So, this is my conservative multiplier for the impact of $15 billion flowing into the ETH ETF. This is my sandbagged 20x multiplier that would give you a 72.4% return on investment based on today's prices.

I think

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