NUGGETS OF ALPHA
Lost Bitcoin equals ~4,961,078 or 28.6% of the total supply
Investment funds hold ~325,546 BTC
ETF/ETP hold ~800,000 BTC
Public Companies hold ~224,983 BTC
Private Companies hold ~394,167 BTC
Governments hold ~488,187 BTC
Wrapped BTC holds ~259,571 BTC
72% of the BTC supply is controlled by long-term holders
8.16M BTC have not moved in 4+ years
My sandbagged price prediction for the fourth halving (2024) is $81,858
By 2026, I forecast there will be 97.9M millionaires, controlling ~$100T
Of the ~100M millionaires by 2026, only 3.38% could theoretically become whole coiners
No matter how high the price of Bitcoin goes, supply will not increase - purely inelastic!
There will never be more than 416,054 whole coiners (0.00542% of humanity)
Owning 1 BTC puts one in the top 2.54% of holders and .0044% of humanity
Bitcoin is so scarce, making now the best time to stack sats
Adam Back is an OG in Bitcoin that recently discussed the concept of "peak whole coiners," which inspired this lesson. A whole coiner is someone who owns at least one Bitcoin. Beck believes that we may be reaching a point where it is no longer possible for new people to become whole coiners as the price of Bitcoin continues to rise.
I have been studying Bitcoin maniacally since my obsession began back in 2017. So in this lesson, I will be pulling from my six years of data to share my perspective on “peak whole coin status.”
The calculations I am sharing are guesstimates, with some being spot on and others being educated guesses based on anecdotal evidence.
The amounts listed could be off a bit - and I sandbag where I can.
Bill Miller once had half of his net worth in Bitcoin, but he lost a lot shorting Tesla. I pulled down his amount in this study.
This video covers my latest calculations on how many BTC coins could be lost. Not only do I study who has the coins, but also who lost the coins.
The number of Bitcoin lost is terrifying when you think about it.
These funds add up to a little more than 2x of Microstrategy’s holdings.
Technically, you could own a whole Bitcoin by owning shares in a fund or company. However, you do not receive all of the benefits of holding the pure form of BTC in self-custody.
Grayscale is the major ETF/ETP with over 635K BTC. The total amount for all funds equals
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