Today’s Nuggets
Gold is No Longer in Play per Bessent
Selling from LTH Exhausted Once Again
The Bitcoin Waterfall Model
Cohort Moves With OTC Desks
The Disconnect Between Retail and Institutions
Elite Performance, Elite Endowment
Private Funds Making Bit Allocations
This will be interesting as you will see material you have never seen before. We spent the last 18 hours crunching a bunch of numbers and going through some stuff to create a new multiplier, as I promised at cohort analysis yesterday.
We will look at:
Who is selling?;
Who is buying?;
Who is exhausted?;
Who is still hungry?;
Who are the new players coming into Bitcoin?;
How much is left?;
What has happened since the Bitcoin halving?;
Where are we in the cycle, compared to other halvings?; and
What could it mean for the price?
February is normally a great month but it has not been one so far.
January was up 6.6%. In the left year column, I have highlighted 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025 because these are the analogs. January was below average, 6.6%, versus an average of 10.5%.
February should be very strong if you look at the 2013 return of 64%, 2017, 23%, and 2021, 36.4%. However, we are down by minus 2% but should expect to finish February positively.
If we take an average of those historic returns, the return should be 40% but this will not happen.
Shout out to the gold bugs!
The U.S. is building a sovereign wealth fund and they will not put gold in it. They are going to put
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