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Why JP Was Mad
The 10-Year Yield Rejects JP
The Strategic Reserve Executive Order
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HUT 8’s $100M and MARA’s $160M Buy
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This story is called JP Tanks the Markets because today and yesterday have been rough and wild with lots of liquidations and downturns.
93% of the time - after a 25 basis point cut - the markets go up. However, that did not happen because of some things that were said. A lot of crap happened yesterday that was not expected.
I will try to break down what happened, why it happened, and try to find the silver lining.
Many people say that he is amazing…
I am one of those who said 2% is a unicorn and that he does not control inflation - but he can destroy demand.
This is probably why he was very upset yesterday.
He was mad and scaring the markets by forecasting things for 2025. You can see here that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is over 4.51% after being as low as 3.6% on September 17th, the day before they started cutting rates. The FOMC has cut 200 basis points since then. The 10-year is higher by nearly 100 basis points than on September 17th.
The Fed controls its overnight rate but not the long end of the curve, which largely determines the Treasury interest expense. Therefore, the Fed has no control over inflation, not only over the long end of the curve. This is why he is upset.
The deficits will
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