NUGGETS OF ALPHA
A rise of 0.5% in unemployment can often hint at a looming recession
If the Harvard team and Sahm Rule are correct, a recession will likely hit in 2024
The number of permanent job losses is at its highest level since January 2022
Over half of the new jobs created in October were in healthcare and social assistance
Jobless claims just rose to 1.818 million, their highest level this cycle
The 2-, 10-, and 30-year Treasury rates dropped sharply after the recent jobs report.
Today, the story is really about distortions of monetary policy due to money printing, how the public does not see it, and only those close to the money machine benefit (big banks and government).
Progress on Inflation: Chair Powell noted the Fed's success in making significant progress on inflation without the expected rise in unemployment, a historically unusual and positive outcome.
Economic Resilience: The economy has demonstrated strong resilience in the face of rate hikes, and growth has been robust despite the need for below-potential growth to combat inflation.
Labor Market and Growth: There is an expectation that some slowing in growth and softening of labor market conditions will still be necessary to restore price stability fully.
When you hear from politicians, they always state how great they are and the numerous amount of jobs they are creating. Most people now have three jobs instead of one that pays less.
October saw 150,000 new jobs but a climb in unemployment to 3.9%, the highest since January 2022. A rise of 0.5% in unemployment often hints at
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