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RECAP: FORECAST 2ND HALF 2023
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RECAP: FORECAST 2ND HALF 2023

Bitcoin Forecast: Glimpse into the Second Half of 2023!

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InvestAnswers
Jun 30, 2023
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NUGGETS OF ALPHA

  • Debasement is guaranteed

  • A.I. has sparked the biggest tech rally in the past two years

  • BTC correlation is now negative against both the NASDAQ and S&P 500

  • Global liquidity from the central banks is on the rise

  • The average monthly BTC return has been 14% since its launch

  • The second half of the pre-halving years has yielded -3.24% monthly returns

  • BTC's historic return in the month of July since inception is 8.34%

  • USD is debasing by 11-14% annually with a buying power half-life of 10.4 years

  • Investing regularly and sticking to your plan is essential for building wealth


Let’s run some numbers to see if we can identify a historical pattern for the price action of Bitcoin, as we aim to increase our confidence in where the price will go over the next six months.


Overall, this year has an interesting mix of performance with a clear bifurcation of the crypto industry. The chart is slightly outdated as Solana is now up ~98 YTD, with a huge move over the last two days.


This survey inspired today's lesson was the results and that they were so evenly split. My initial impulse was to think not just about July 1st but then I dug into all of Bitcoin’s history

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