TODAY’S TAKE
Metcalfe’s Law is a proven price variation predictor for BTC & ETH
Bitcoin and Ethereum have significantly diverged from their network value
If ETH reaches Apple’s market cap, its fair value = US$19,553/ETH
If ETH reaches Gold’s market cap, its fair value = US$100,539/ETH
Presently, SOL is less than 5% of ETH’s market cap
If SOL reaches 20% of ETH; ETH reaches Apple’s MC, SOL’s FV = US$1,246
If SOL reaches 20% of ETH; ETH reaches Gold’s MC, SOL’s FV = US$6,407
If Metcalfe’s law holds, the conservative model indicates Bitcoin reaching US$3.4M by the year 2030 under the assumption that the network achieves 1B daily active users.
Metcalfe’s Law states that a network’s impact is the square of the number of nodes in the network. For more insights on this topic, I encourage you to watch the following:
Note: Bitcoin and Ethereum have significantly diverged from their network value.
Jamie Coutt with Bloomberg forecasts by September ‘25, Ethereum could hit US$5,000.
Here is a chart that summarizes Ecoinometrics’ true value study of Ethereum.
For the value of Ethereum based on Metcalfe’s Law to reach the current market cap of Apple, it would need anywhere between 600K and 1.1M daily active users.
For Ethereum to reach the current market size of Gold, it would need anywhere between 800K and 1.3M daily active users.
I took a more conservative figure of 1.2M DAU to match Apple's market cap and 1.5M DAU for Gold.
Today's total ETH supply is 120,490,000, which is gradually decreasing, but I held it steady in this study to be conservative.
If ETH achieves 1.2M daily active users, this model implies the fair value for ETH would be equivalent to Apple’s current market cap, or US$19,553/ETH.
If it were to reach Gold’s market cap, the price of ETH would be US$100,539/ETH.
Currently, SOL is less than 5% of ETH’s market cap, but I believe it will reach that value one day.
This valuation is interesting, but what about Gold’s market cap?
Assuming the SOL supply is 378,140,000, then if it catches Gold, it would be US$6,407/SOL.
The two prevailing questions remain:
Can BTC’s market cap surpass Gold?
Can ETH flip BTC?