The question is, what is the dominant chain and what other flipping has happened along the way?
This lesson aims to see exactly what is happening across all crypto and all chains. We will look at a bunch of charts, data, and metrics to try to come to a conclusion. We will break down all the data to uncover the dominant player.
Mert retweeted Miles, where he talked about his thesis.
What really got my attention is how Solana could go to a thousand bucks. My target is well known as about $360 for this bull run. A thousand bucks would be pretty incredible, considering we started at $8!
For the first time, Solana has flipped Ethereum for mind share.
Solana is now 54% versus 46% for Ethereum. This means there is more chatter, more thought, etc… going into this new chain.
How do you get back to $1,000 when you bought it at $8? It is just unthinkable…
This is Solana priced with Ethereum's market cap. When Ethereum last hit an all-time high, it was shy of $5,000. This proportional valuation would take Solana to $1,228 with an approximate market cap of $570 million.
We do not know how bonkers this cycle could be. It all depends on the mothership, Bitcoin.
There are people like Samson Mao saying a million dollars in 12 months. Tom Lee is saying $100,000 easy by the end of the year. The numbers are crazy but so is the money flow coming into this space.
Sometimes, that is all you need.
Solana achieved a new all-time high in weekly active addresses, which smokes all other chains.
Over 10 million unique people use this chain every week. Remember, the goal is get to 100 million people, then to a billion people that is two step changes away. The unbanked especially need to find ways to transfer money.
This is possible, we just need the use cases.
It is important to remember as well that there are points in time when Ethereum outperforms Solana. Nothing goes straight up.
To highlight those points in time, you just look for the orange. When you see orange, that is when ETH beats Solana. Solana has beaten ETH 82% of the time and the trend is up and to the right - a big delta!
This Solana upside model was created in 2021 because I wanted to map out different market caps of Ethereum over time. Ethereum has taken a bit of a hit lately, so has this chart, which is a function of the ETH market cap.
For this model, all you have to do is pick how much of the market cap SOL will represent. We just eclipsed 20% of ETH but now it has gone far higher all of a sudden because ETH has fallen and Solana did not fall as much.
I think a fair target is somewhere between
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