KNOWLEDGE NUGGETS
Friday, both Headline & Core PCE came in a tad under expectations
Liquidity issues have put the macro environment on shaky ground
The US government plans to liquidate more than 41,000 Bitcoin in 2023
The majority of Americans are pro-crypto per this 2022 mid-term study
The majority of Bitcoin mining uses renewable energy
Cardano will be a top Ethereum Virtual Machine chain in April
SPX earnings estimates are back near record levels once again
Eight stocks (FAANG +MNT) are the reason for the S&P 500 gains this year
Microstrategy (⇧102%) is the best-performing stock that we follow YTD
Tesla Q1 delivery expectations continue to rise per Troy Teslike’s research
Charles Schwab experienced its worst quarter of performance since 1987
ChatGPT is close to creating a universal college educational simulator
Italy temporarily bans ChatGPT over privacy concerns
Bitcoin
Crypto
Operation Choke Point
Blackholes
Who is accumulating?
Performance of Q1 2023
Forecast the remain of the year
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Headline & Core PCE inflation came in at 5.0% & 4.6%, which is March 31low estimates. However, the month-over-month slowdown after a January upside surprise is welcome. Services' month-over-month contribution was the lowest since November, and housing's numbers were the best since February 2022.
Yields and the USD went down a bit after the release.
Q1 was on very shaky ground:
the macro outlook in question
the banking crisis
S&P 500 did not perform well
We have gone from financial contingent to April 30ntingent, creating liquidity issues.
The one-millionth address in the Shrimp category (less than 1 BTC) recently posted.
The United States government plans to liquidate more than 41,000 Bitcoin seized as part of the case against Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht. "The Government understands [the Bitcoin] is expected to be liquidated in four more batches over his calendar year," said the court filing.
A March 31 filing with the US District Court for the Southern District of New York regarding the case against James Zhong said US government authorities had begun liquidating roughly 51,352 Bitcoin.
According to the filing, officials sold roughly 9,861 BTC for more than $215 million on March 14, leaving approximately 41,491 BTC. The price of Bitcoin went up on that day.
The more you attack Bitcoin, the stronger it gets.
Bittrex is ceasing operations on April 30.
CEX.io announced today that it could no longer hold US dollars and must be converted into digital assets by Monday, April 3.
Do not be holding assets on these exchanges that could disappear in value.
I wish Elizabeth Warren would do something creative for once. Instead, her hatred and aggression are helping to fuel crypto adoption. Keep up the good work, Elizabeth!
The majority of Americans are pro-crypto per this 2022 mid-term study.
Dennis Porter put this list together of where the Democrats have stood over the term of this current administration.
According to research by ESG analyst and investor Daniel Batten, the majority of power used in Bitcoin mining comes from renewable energy sources.
By many measures, red states—those that lean Republican—have recovered faster economically than Democratic-leaning blue ones, with workers and employers moving from the coasts to the middle of the country and Florida.
According to an analysis of Labor Department data by the Brookings Institution, since February 2020, the share of all US jobs located in red states has grown by more than half a percentage point. Moreover, red states have added 341,000 jobs over that time, while blue states were still short 1.3 million jobs as of May.
Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson found himself feuding with controversial Craig Wright, who claims to be the creator of Bitcoin. I find these claims baseless, and we in the crypto community should stick together in support of Charles.
This refers to an Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) chain that could be a positive development for Cardano.
This chart reports daily volumes, which is interesting to watch.
Earnings estimates are back near record levels again. However, this wave of excitement seems quite excessive and completely unwarranted. After reaching over 90% of yield curve inversions in the US Treasury market, the risk of a full-blown economic recession remains significant. In addition, the tightening of monetary conditions in the face of deteriorating corporate fundamentals is also concerning looking forward.
Per the first quarter's performance, this year will likely be good for the stock market.
The term "discount window borrowing" refers to a process by which banks and other depository institutions can borrow money from the Federal Reserve's discount window. The discount window is a mechanism that allows banks to obtain short-term loans from the Federal Reserve to meet their liquidity needs.
This measurement just passed through the Great Financial Crisis levels, which means we still have a problem in the banking industry.
A narrative is building that the banking crisis is over because the S&P 500 has just about retraced all its losses. However, someone needs to tell the bank stocks as they cannot rally, and the other 492 stocks in the S&P 500 are collectively down on the year.
I always talk about black holes in the stock market. Only a few stocks in the indexes bring in all of the returns.
Eight stocks (FAANG +MNT) keep the S&P 500 positive this year. Remember that the fastest growing and highly disruptive companies are where all of the capital flows.
Nvidia & Tesla ~90%
Facebook/META ~70%
Apple ~32%
Microsoft ~20%
Amazon ~20%
Netflix ~17%
Google/Alphabet ~16%
This quarter was all Tech
Financials were smashed this quarter
Big Pharma in the middle is mostly red
Energy overall is down
Microstrategy is the best-performing stock we follow year-to-date, while Bitcoin is up 72% in 2023. This volatile equity that should be pegged to Bitcoin, but it is not. This makes the stock beautiful to trade.
This chart supplied by Troy Teslike depicts the average of dozens of analysts, and there is no rhyme or reason to which analyst projects more or less than the average. Troy is the best in the business and has been upping his estimates recently as data rolls in for countries worldwide.
Tesla bear, GLJ research analyst Gordon Johnson, expects a beat. He is modeling about 425,000 deliveries.
The Biden administration on Friday granted California the legal authority to require that half of all trucks, tractor-trailers, cement mixers, and other heavy vehicles sold in the state must be all-electric by 2035. This aggressive plan is designed to clean up the worst polluters on the road. Telsa is making the replacement vehicles and will have incentives from the US government for their adoption combined.
Charles Schwab stock is having its worst month since 1987 as depositors are pulling money from their bank's account in search of higher yields. This is depriving Schwab of cheap funding that is putting pressure on earnings.
A record high 56% of Americans polled by the Wall Street Journal said a four-year college degree was not worth the cost.
I tell people you can learn more by watching YouTube videos than by going to college.
I and many others are having trouble sleeping because of the advancements in artificial intelligence. The pace of AI acceleration is stunning.
Italy is limiting and banning AI while embracing TikTok. This does not bold well for its future.
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