NUGGETS OF ALPHA
The Fed is being consistent about the 2% target and vague about everything else
10-year U.S. Treasury yield hits 15-year high
World’s borrowing costs hit a multi-decade high
Fed shifted the dot plot hawkishly upwards through 2024-25
FOMC is a poor barometer of what is going to happen next with the economy
For rate cuts to occur, we need a crisis to emerge
10-year treasury yields are higher than the global equity yield for the first time since 2007
Investors are fleeing from stocks as hard landing fears grow
The Fed typically stops a tightening cycle when the labor market unwinds
The 4-week moving average of U.S. bankruptcy filings is now at a similar level to the Great Financial Crisis and COVID-19
The U.S. debt is growing at the rate of $18B per day
Today's story explores whether we have a hard or soft landing coming as we examine several interesting signals from this week's Fed meeting. We had a horrible day in the market today and lots of weakness this week, so we will dig into that, along with some bullish signs for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is still up 2.51% to date in September. It is holding up much better than other assets. Bitcoin "loves a good crisis," and we are beginning to see signs of crises simultaneously bubbling up all over the planet.
This is the summary of the econometrics analysis of the returns of similar assets. Bitcoin has a return profile that is almost identical to mega-cap tech stocks. Many stocks have market cap ranges from hundreds of billions to a trillion dollars and exhibit similar characteristics to BTC. Bitcoin is not
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