InvestAnswers Newsletter

InvestAnswers Newsletter

Share this post

InvestAnswers Newsletter
InvestAnswers Newsletter
RECAP: CRYPCRO
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More

RECAP: CRYPCRO

Hard or Soft Landing? Impact on Risk Assets incl. BTC

InvestAnswers's avatar
InvestAnswers
Sep 25, 2023
∙ Paid
Share

NUGGETS OF ALPHA

  • The Fed is being consistent about the 2% target and vague about everything else

  • 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hits 15-year high

  • World’s borrowing costs hit a multi-decade high

  • Fed shifted the dot plot hawkishly upwards through 2024-25

  • FOMC is a poor barometer of what is going to happen next with the economy

  • For rate cuts to occur, we need a crisis to emerge

  • 10-year treasury yields are higher than the global equity yield for the first time since 2007

  • Investors are fleeing from stocks as hard landing fears grow

  • The Fed typically stops a tightening cycle when the labor market unwinds

  • The 4-week moving average of U.S. bankruptcy filings is now at a similar level to the Great Financial Crisis and COVID-19

  • The U.S. debt is growing at the rate of $18B per day


Today's story explores whether we have a hard or soft landing coming as we examine several interesting signals from this week's Fed meeting. We had a horrible day in the market today and lots of weakness this week, so we will dig into that, along with some bullish signs for Bitcoin.


Bitcoin is still up 2.51% to date in September. It is holding up much better than other assets. Bitcoin "loves a good crisis," and we are beginning to see signs of crises simultaneously bubbling up all over the planet.


This is the summary of the econometrics analysis of the returns of similar assets. Bitcoin has a return profile that is almost identical to mega-cap tech stocks. Many stocks have market cap ranges from hundreds of billions to a trillion dollars and exhibit similar characteristics to BTC. Bitcoin is not

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to InvestAnswers Newsletter to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 InvestAnswers
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share

Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More