Today’s Nuggets
Second Largest Liquidation Month in Ethereum’s History
From 500K DAU to 24K in 3 Years
Misery Loves Company with Rivian & Volkswagen
U.S. Interest Set to Double
Trading Volume on BTC Futures Far Greater than Spot
BTC Miner Hash Hits All-TIme High
Bitcoin Sine Waves indicate a Pump
Solana Bucks the Trend
DePIN Remains the Hottest Sector
Tesla Smart Summon Kicks ‘ASS’
The Risk of Underinvesting in AI is Higher than Overinvesting
xAI World’s Largest AI Cluster in 122 Days
In this lesson, we will try to find the signal in the noise.
Rektember is happening as the crypto market cap has fallen to $2 trillion. Bitcoin is down under $58K again. Miners are getting smashed, which we will dig into.
The Fear and Greed Index is in the toilet again, at 26.
It has been a bloodbath:
Bitcoin is down 7.8% since last Tuesday.
ETH is down 8.5%.
SOL is down more than 10%.
NEAR is down more than 10%.
The only things escaping are LTC and XMR.
If you play with anything like borrowing, please watch your liquidation levels. Do not do it unless you put a liquidation level far out of reach.
The total liquidations in on-chain lending markets on Ethereum reached $450 million, and Aave did $290 million of that or two-thirds of the liquidations. This represents the second-largest monthly on-chain lending market liquidation in history behind 2021, which saw $671 million in liquidations.
PENDLE is always there every week;
IMX, TAIKO, MODE, HFT, and FORT are set for big dumps; amd
ENA will rain down tokens for the rest of time.
Charles Hoskinson says the Chang hard fork changes everything for Cardano and now has the power to dwarf Bitcoin.
Watch out when people speak such hyperbole; it is always a red flag.
No offense to Charles or Cardano but dwarfing Bitcoin? I do not think so.
Let us look at the adoption of the Cardano network.
Cardano has gone from over half a million daily active users in the last three years to 24,000. This is what they call a ghost chain. A chain is not a chain with that few users…
The Chang hard fork is about governance and that does not drive adoption.
Again this week tech has gotten hit hard:
Nvidia was down 14%.
Google was down 5.5%.
Meta was down 1.4%.
Apple was down 2%.
Microsoft was down 1%.
Amazon was up just under 1%.
Tesla was down 0.6%.
Retail is doing well with names such as Walmart, Procter & Gamble, etc. The financials are in good shape as well.
Volkswagen is a broke company that is going to save Rivian with a $5 billion investment.
Volkswagen wants to shut down its own factories in Germany. When you get companies that are stuck and out of options, they partner out of desperation. It happens time and time again in the marketplace.
Partnerships are extremely difficult to structure and must be perfectly balanced for both parties' benefit. If both are desperate, one needs cash, and the other one needs software, it is never a good match.
Intel is not going to make it.
Going back 25 years, you could have held that puppy for a quarter of a century and lost your A$$.
This is probably like every government around the world as the population ages and interest rates are high. This is completely unsustainable. Interest now makes up 23% of the budget and if this budget were stagnant, interest would soon be making up 46% of the budget or even more.
Government spending is estimated to grow from $7 trillion to nearly $11 trillion in very short order. $3 trillion of the $3.5 trillion increase will come from Social Security, which will soon be dwarfed by interest payments.
Money printers will go brr and we are in that infinite debt-death spiral.
Congratulations, because
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