Today’s Nuggets
Wynn Continues to Lose
More Treasuries, Enter the Pomp!
GameStop Upsizes to $2.25 Billion
Gold Miner Sells Gold to Buy BTC
Trump Media Ups Ante by $10 Billion to Buy BTC
Proposal to Mine Bitcoin with France’s Nuclear Power Stations
Market Reactions to Wars
FIAT System Likes Wars, BTC System Does Not
FSD To Expand into the Biggest Car Market on Earth
It is Friday Fire and another volatile week in the box.
We will cover some topics today that may be a bit scary, but they need to be discussed. We will cover the impact of fiat on certain things that are happening and the fourth turning.
I have a new price target for Bitcoin and a timeline of confluence with my models, which is interesting.
Unfortunately, we are back in the neutral zone.
This is all because markets are being rattled by some of the situations going on in the world.
Another bit of bad news is that James Wynn continues to lose.
I know he was raising some money online where people could transfer him some USDC. Well, he probably took that and lost another $2 million.
There is a lesson here: if you want to learn to invest, learn. Take the time to learn. Take the time to paper trade. Take the time to sharpen your skills before you start playing with real money.
This is from Bitcoin Magazine Pro, which is a model that they call the Delta Top Top Cap model.
The top cap model predicts Bitcoin's price by multiplying its average market cap by a magical number, 35. It correctly predicted the 2017 peak but was off a bit for 2020 and 2021, which was a manipulated cycle. 35 is now forecasting a top price of $523,000, which I think we will not get to unless nation-states start to buy Bitcoin.
One of the top SBR countries now is Brazil. They said they are very interested in a 5% Bitcoin strategic reserve. This calculates to about $40 billion worth of Bitcoin. If that happens, we go straight above $150K quickly. This does not even take into account all the other nation-states that will follow Brazil.
The Delta top is more realistic, and it subtracts the average market cap from the realized cap based on the cost basis of all Bitcoin in circulation to estimate the peak. This is a model I like a lot. I predicted $80K last cycle, but we only got to $69K, which is not so bad.
The terminal price model is the most accurate. It uses supply-adjusted coin days destroyed and has closely matched the past peaks. It was bang on in 2017 and forecasted $64,000 in 2021.
I would like to compare the previous model to the LILO model that we have, which predicts layers.
If we look at the LILO model on layer 10, at the last point at which Bitcoin crossed through the 200-day moving average, it takes us to $229,000. The Delta Top is forecasting $225,000.
Of course, the probability of getting to the top layer is small, at around a 5 to 10% chance, but it is still possible nonetheless.
These models also predict how long the bear market will last based on traditional cycles if history repeats.
The Delta top time would be 130 days from now, which would take us to the 21st of October 2025.
It could be a pretty bonkers time if history repeats, as Bitcoin would double over this period. Could Bitcoin double in 130 days? Well, it has done a lot more than that in the past.
Pompliano is now going to lead a new company that will raise $750 million to buy Bitcoin, and this is so crazy, the way all of these treasury companies are popping up right now.
Bitcoin is now above $100,000, which they are all popping. Why did they not do this at $15,000 a couple of years back at the bottom of the bear? Shout out to Michael Saylor, who did just that. Pomp is very well connected to TradFi markets and other Bitcoiners, so he should not have any problem raising that much money.
My concern is that if
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