Today’s Nuggets
Japan’s Unexpected, Unprecedented Mistake?
Fed Money Printer is Going into High Gear!
MicroStrategy Split Incoming!
Mirror Copy of the 2015-17 Cycle?
The BlackRock Perpetual Bid Continues
Much has happened after what many called a ‘Financial Armageddon’ this weekend.
The crypto market lost ~$200 billion and we are now down about $2.2 trillion - on the nose. The industry had $130 billion in volume. Fear and Greed are in the toilet, at 17, indicating extreme fear and Bitcoin dominance is at 55%.
This story will be about what is next by analyzing history, what we went through, how bad it was compared to other cycles, and much more!
The world is nervous!
This week's Fear & Greed Index reading is like the meme fear and greed chart, where the needle is broken off and there is blood all over.
Extreme fear is essentially as low as it gets, everybody. We will see that in some data today.
Looking at the last three years of returns for Bitcoin in August:
2022 = -14%
2023 = -11.3%
2024 = -11%
August is the second-worst month of the year for Bitcoin and September is normally even worse.
Given the trends and patterns, perhaps we are through the worst of it.
I will back that up with data shortly...
Everybody is talking about the ‘carry trade’.
Why is it so important?
Well, for 30 years, Japan had 0% interest rates. As a result, investors borrowed the yen at no cost and invested it globally into T-bills and a basket of risk assets, including the Nasdaq. This explains why the Nasdaq also sold off.
For the first time in many years, the Bank of Japan increased rates by a quarter of a point. This was not expected, unprecedented, and perhaps
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