Today’s Nuggets

• Leopold Unlocked Biggest Trading Loss Ever

• BTC Miners Continue to Rotate into AI

• The $63K Supply Wall

• Tom Lee Sees ETH Flying with the Agentic World

• SpaceX 10GW 2027 target

• Anthropic’s Revenue: From Nearly Nothing to $74 Billion

• AI Agent Explosion

It is OCTA time, and this episode is called “The Agentic Explosion,” because AI agents are completely exploding with growth rates that the world has never seen before.

What does it mean for crypto? What does it mean for AI, our stocks, and everything else?

OCTA used to be heavy on Bitcoin and heavy on on-chain technical analysis, but it has morphed much more into AI. Our worlds are colliding between AI and crypto, and we are going to break all of that down today.

This is a stunning chart because if you are bearish on things like Bitcoin, all you have to do is look at the U.S. annual interest on debt—it is now $1.4 trillion.

This is more than the market cap of Bitcoin, and that is just the interest that the U.S. has on its own debt. This is enough money to build over 7,000 hospitals or 26,000 schools. It is a crazy amount of money that is just wasted.

Since 2020, interest on debt is up over 4X for perspective. The year 2020 is only six years ago.

Leopold has unlocked the biggest trading loss ever in history, and he is up against some big ones.

For those of you who have been around a long time like me, you may remember Long-Term Capital Management. Leopold had the largest trading losses of all time, and astonishingly, he still has $10 billion that he is managing privately.

This is the historical leaderboard for situational awareness. I would love to get one of those “Situational Awareness” T-shirts that I find to be so funny. It is one of the biggest

Read more

Read more

On André Duqum’s podcast he put dates on things most people still treat as sci-fi BS. It is not. As you know I’ve been sounding this AI alarm since late 2022, well now Emad just added a very concrete timeline.

Forewarned is forearmed. Better to know now what is coming, rather than in 800 days.

Here are his eight predictions

1. Desk jobs. About 1,000 days. Anything you do with a keyboard, a video, and a mouse, AI can do. He said 800 days left. That does not mean you get fired tomorrow. It means the economic value of that work slides toward zero.

2. A perfect copy of you. AI reads your email. It reads your work. Then it rebuilds you. Except it doesn’t sleep and it doesn’t make any erros. He says nobody will even notice you left the office.

3. Robots at $1.50 an hour. Desk work is the start. Physical work is next. He puts a fully amortized Tesla Optimus at about $1.50 an hour. The trucking industry is a million people. He says it’s gone in a few years. Interesting how clearly he sees Tesla future when so few others do.

4. Nowhere left to reskill. We already ran from muscle to brains. Now machines do both. He says AI can talk to a computer at 15,000 words a second. “Learn to code” was the last escape hatch. That door is closed.

5. UBI cannot save you. The obvious rescue plan is already broke. Poverty wage for every American: $5.1 trillion. The entire US tax base: $5 trillion. You cannot fund it, even on a whiteboard. And if you ask me, that tax base is going to shrink, not grow, as the work gets automated and the wealthy flee Orwellian regimes.

6. You get the weak model. The labs keep the best for themselves. He calls it a comfortable cage for people who don’t know better. God-tier stays with the powers that be.

7. AI decides what you believe. He says it’s already 99th-percentile persuasive. More than almost any human. It can tune every frequency in a voice to move you. Then it shapes what you think and how you vote. Super yikes.

8. The good news. Survive ten years. Medicine is starting to add life faster than you lose it. A 50-year-old today could see 80 become 100. If you can survive the next decade, he says, then you can hit escape velocity and may never have to die.

I’m not telling you this is all locked. I’m telling you a serious person put a calendar on it. If even half of this hits, the next 800 days are not another BS post, it could be the last window where your skills, your wealth/savings, and your brain still belong to you.

The future is going to be wild. Get ready now.

Today’s Nuggets

• Bitcoin Rainbow Chart - Bottom Fell Out

• Last Optimist Leaving the Room

• 63K is the new 42K

• Another Hardware Wallet Breach

• Ledger CEO…. No Such Thing as Total Safety

• Tom Lee Bitmine Buying

• Bessent - USA Crypto Capital of World

• Solana Still Dominates Tokenized Stocks

Today is a different story, but we have to tackle the elephant in the room.

It is Monday, which is the day we talk about crypto and related topics. Today’s story is called “Is Crypto Dead?”

We will look at a lot of data to see if there is any life in it, identify any bottom signals, and evaluate the overall sentiment.

Crypto volume has hit a three-year low, and this is the daily exchange volume based on a seven-day moving average.

I believe it was Saylor who said, “Volatility is vitality.” When there is no volatility, there is no VIX and no excitement. Everything gets boring, the casino gets boring, and the gamblers go elsewhere. This is basically what has happened.

Looking at the data, we are down to roughly $15 billion in seven-day average volume, which is a three-year trough. It is down 33% month-over-month. I always say summer sucks, and August is the worst, so that could be part of it too. However, year-over-year, it is down 80%.

The volume is simply gone. This is really bad for companies that depend on volume and fees, like Bitcoin miners and crypto exchanges like Coinbase. They are probably getting completely murdered right now.

Bitcoin transaction fees are also at a three-year low.

Elvis has literally left the building. It is a very tough time for the miners out there.

As if things could not get worse, looking at the Bitcoin rainbow chart, we literally fell out of the bottom of the rainbow.

Bitcoin’s price has fallen out of the rainbow, so it is way beyond fire-sale prices compared to where it is supposed to be. This Bitcoin rainbow chart has been very reliable in the past, so watch this space carefully.

It makes you wonder what the heck is happening, as this is not very positive.

People should be happy in the summer, but they are not.

The chatter everywhere is negative. Social volume shows a sharp rise in fearful terms like “crypto is dead”—hence the name of this video—or “it is over.” Every thumbnail on the internet is always clickbaity with phrases like “it is over” or “it started.” However, this type of capitulation and exhaustion language often flags the bottom.

The old joke is that when the last optimist leaves the room, that is the bottom.

We are essentially at that stage right now. Shout-out to all the optimists that are here as well.

This chart shows why allocations are very important.

These are the actual scorecards since the U.S. President took office:

• Silver is up 123%.

• Micron is up 1,200%.

• Gold is up 68%.

• NASDAQ is up 42%.

• Russell 2000 is up 38%.

• S&P is up 30%.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is down 41%, Ethereum is down 48% (nearly half), and altcoins have been smashed entirely. The joke is that he is the first “crypto President,” and boy, do his results suck. This is probably making him even more unpopular.

I used to talk about $42K in the last cycle.

$42K was one of those levels that acted as either support or resistance for the longest time. I believe that $63K is the new $42K. According to Zremlin, we hit $63K in 2021, 2024, and 2026. We had it before the Iran war began, four months into the war, before Trump took office, and 18 months after Trump took office.

We have been down at this level since February, so we are seven months down at the bottom. Considering all the stuff that has happened in the space, it is actually not bad. Bitcoin today is up $1,550, which is unusual for a Monday.

For other things that are dead, look at the Clarity Act.

I have been sharing Kalshi reports for a little while, but now the odds of it being approved in 2026 are gone. This takes all the hope for the altcoiners with it. Alex Thorne from Galaxy lowered the odds of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 down to 10%. Eight weeks ago, he was sure it was in the bag at 75%, but now he thinks that it is not going to happen.

What I always like to say is never underestimate the power of the banksters. They are the ones who do not want the Clarity Act approved because that would eat their deposits.

It is all about

Read more

This is the first part of the Schelling story, and I have a lot of concerns about Bitcoin, and I have had them for quite some time.

I have always said that five to eight years out there could be a quantum risk, but they are going to quantum-proof it, so that should be fine.

One of the things I do not like about Bitcoin right now is the

Read more

Read more

Read more

Today’s Nuggets

• Most Boring Time Ever

• The Best Entries Feel the Worst

• Alpenglow is here

• SpaceX Finalizes Cursor Acq for $60 Billion

• Memory Is the Rate Limiter

• Debt-to-Equity Ratios: AI Hyperscalers vs Dot Com Telecoms

• Copper’s 15 Years of Short Supply

• Top 1% Now Have More Than the Middle Class

We will cover fire topics, including one that could be a bit upsetting or exciting towards the end.

We will cover some very shocking macro stuff, some details on millionaire growth, what is happening, and why the disparity is going to get even worse in the future. We will talk about crypto and setups and bottoms and pivots, shortages, and so much more.

This one is called The Setup.

This is the most boring time ever for Bitcoin and crypto.

I have been looking at Bitcoin charts since 2017, and talk about lack of volatility and volume. Literally, there have been no big violent swings.

We have been here around the $64K level for seven months. This is one of the longest and quietest periods I have ever seen. Is it compressing, or is it falling out of favor? This is the million-dollar question.

We look at the ETFs.

They had a great week last week with nearly a billion dollars in. Unfortunately, this week they experienced a third of a billion dollars out. There might be a turnaround now, but it is unlikely.

It looks like we are

Read more

Read more

Today’s Nuggets

• 99.8% of Crypto is Going to Zero

• Grayscale Kills 3 More Zombie Chains

• Every 4 Years Bitcoin Reaches Oversold Levels

• BTC Falls Below 2018 Gold Floor

• Solana Is Eating Everyone’s Lunch

• Google’s $94 Billion Space Shot

• Capital Floods Into AI Factories

• NVDA Launches Frontier Model Nemotron

• Memory Costs Enter Orbit

• Elon Tackling Largest TAMs on Earth

As a quick reminder, summers suck.

Volumes are light, no real buying happens, and everybody is at the beach. Do not expect a lot of market action. Remember, we are going into September in about 20 days. September is typically

Read more

Read more

Today’s Nuggets

• Clarity Act Vote Finally Happening

• 99.99% of All Onchain Tx will be Agents

• Solana Activity All-Time High at 1.117 Billion

• Top 6 Last 5 Years

• Grayscale Kills 3 More Zombie Chains

• SOL w Market Cap of ETH at ATH

The last time I did this was over three years ago, and today we find out exactly what is happening in the crypto world.

This is my favorite type of story as we are getting back to basics, getting back to the quant, and crunching all the numbers—literally like we do every time in the middle of a bear market.

Who is winning? Who is losing? Who is dying? Who is thriving? We will crunch all the numbers across revenue per chain, daily active users per chain, market cap per daily active user, transactions, and all the good stuff that you need to know.

By the way, as a finance and numbers guy, I appraise everything the same way, whether it is an AI stock or crypto. Put this in your pipe and smoke it! Everyone wants to know what is happening in crypto.

Is it dead? Is it time to jump in? Is it time to rotate in, rotate out, or give up the ghost? This episode is called “Crypto’s True Winner,” and we will break it all down.

Over three years ago today, I made this exact video evaluating crypto based on fees.

I typically do this every year, but doing it now is quite appropriate because everything has changed so much in this very short window of time. Three years to some may sound like a lot of time, but when you are my age, it feels like three months. Many metrics are massively overlooked in crypto. For many people, it is a complete casino.

The claims people make about crypto and the things they pump are not warranted. However, when you have all the data at your fingertips and can appraise things accurately based on data, then you have a much more definitive valuation model to discover where the mispricings exist, which chains are expensive, which ones are cheap, which ones are dead, and which ones are going to take over the universe. That is the endgame for this thing called crypto.

The Clarity Act has been postponed until the 15th of September.

Many people were hoping for this to pump their crypto bags, but we have more time. This makes a story like this very timely.

Looking back at history, when we evaluated blockchain daily active users back in August 2023, there were 4.5 million users every day.

This was not bad; today, there are 11 million daily active users. Usage has gone up a little over 2x, which is substantial. However, there are major differences in how this pie has doubled.

The players that you would think should be there are no longer there.

Many chains have fallen by the wayside, many are the same as they were three years ago, and some have gone up 5x or 6x. By the way, I shared this detailed report earlier on Patreon.

There is also a massive shift happening in the world, which is a macro trend you cannot ignore.

We know AI is taking over, but Cloudflare forecasts that bot traffic will exceed human traffic by a factor of 1,000 within two years (by 2028). You as a human—no offense to the humans out there—will become very irrelevant.

Furthermore, 99.99% of all on-chain transactions will be driven or conducted by AI agents with LLM-based wallets. The only way that agents can actually transact in this new world of AGI is

Read more

Read more

This question pertains to the future, and AI has been the biggest narrative since November 2022.

Nothing has changed yet. This is an excellent question, and Elon is building in-memory manufacturing.

The answer to your question is Terafab.

Basically, they will

Read more

Today’s Nuggets

• Way Beyond the Tipping Point, Half a Trilly in 30 days!

• M2 Ripping… Real GDP not so much

• How $1 becomes 3 cents

• Tick Tock MoFiater

• The Silent Wealth Transfer

• Prepare for the Future

It is Friday Fire!

This one is special today. Every year I look at fiat and wealth erosion, and this one is really, truly pulling the alarm bell. If there were a chain, I would pull the alarm bell.

What I am about to show you is shocking as to the changes over the last 10 years. Our story today will focus on the changes since 2020 and those over my lifetime. These are some stats that will blow your mind.

Much of it is compared to the U.S. dollar, which actually is the cleanest shirt in the laundry. The rest are even worse, and I will show you that too.

This story is about Bitcoin, fiat, gold, real estate, and the future.

What will be important in the future? I am going to go very fast because there is a lot to cover.

Why do we care about fiat?

Well, we have absolutely soaring national debt issuance across the planet. This is accelerating currency debasement as we have never seen before. I will show you some stats on that, too, along with a whole bunch of other crazy things. The debt death spiral is in full swing, and I will also stress how much things have weakened over the past decade.

We will also examine how assets like Bitcoin and gold are faring. I know that Bitcoin is in a bear market right now, with nearly a year in and everybody throwing in the towel at this stage.

However, things will change very soon, and we will share why.

Let us talk about the root cause of what’s going on in the world regarding the fiat currencies themselves.

Government spending is out of control—completely out of control. It’s not backed by anything. They literally print paper, use very aggressive quantitative easing (QE), and play lots of games with central banks and money center banks.

The problem is that none of this printing is keeping up with productivity growth. This is where perhaps AI will come in, and we will get into that a bit later. However, now the public is beginning to lose confidence, central banks are beginning to lose confidence, and the bond market has completely lost confidence. This is all a big deal.

Let us look at national debt versus GDP growth, as we have gone way beyond the tipping point.

The U.S. debt-to-GDP is 130%, Greece is 142%, Italy is 137%, Singapore is 175%, Japan is 235%, and Sudan is 252%. This U.S. is not far off from where Sudan believe it or not. The problem is that they are all printing willy-nilly.

I call this one “Let’s Party.”

This is when the U.S. The House and Senate decide, “Let us suspend the debt ceiling and spend like drunken sailors.”

Boy, did they do that! It is absolutely crazy. Debt since around 2000 was about $6 trillion, and now it is $40 trillion, in a quarter of a century. I know that a quarter of a century sounds like a long time, but when you’re my age, it actually goes really fast, so buckle in for that.

This stat is from Charlie Bilello: half a trillion dollars in new debt in the U.S. in 30 days.

At that current clip, that will be way more than $8 trillion over the next two years. This is exactly why your burrito costs $20.

The only way to fix this is to cut entitlements. Look at all the countries around the world where the amount they give in social welfare to people coming into the country exceeds the tax receipts.

Is that sustainable? No. We are going into

Read more

Today’s Nuggets

• GPU Rental Prices on the Rise

• Starmind AI satellite optimized Vera Rubin NVL72

• SpaceX $100BN in ARR by Year-End

• Gwynne coming for Cellular Giants!

• NVDA PE Lowest Ever

• Google AGI Pivot, Google’s Top 4 AI Brains Leaving

• AI Researchers Scared Stiff of RSI!

• The End of Source Code is Nigh

It is Thursday, which means it is AI Impact Day.

I will uncover the path to trillions. Never before have I seen so many indicators pointing to where wealth will be created. In this age of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), everything seems very clear—which actually makes me a little paranoid because it almost feels too easy.

Today’s presentation is titled Chips to Trillions. We will cover AI, AGI, industry pivots, hardware chips, and who will ultimately win.

At the end of the day, compute economics in the age of AGI come down to simple math:

• 2025: A gigawatt of compute costs approximately $50 billion.

• 2026: The average price for a gigawatt of compute is estimated at $60 billion—if you can even build it.

• 2027: Estimates project costs climbing to $73 billion per gigawatt.

This represents a year-over-year cost growth of 20% to 22%.

The primary challenge is not just acquiring GPUs, servers, and wiring. The biggest operational bottlenecks are

Read more

Read more

Read more

Today’s Nuggets

• US Defending Yen

• The Last of the Correlations

• US GDP Set to Explode also in Q3

• Big Earnings Week for IA13

• Citi Stacking Tesla

• SpaceX Slays Another

• Open Source Models Better and Cheaper

Extraordinary day today, and boy did AI fly back.

We will talk about all of it and a lot of very interesting Bitcoin charts. Not much is happening in crypto, but there is a lot happening in Bitcoin under the hood.

This one is called “Burning Building Bid”. As you know, I always talk about running into a burning building when people are afraid and running down the street scared for their lives. They are my favorite times.

In July, we had some good times, and I know people were very upset, but it was a great time to stack lots of things extremely cheap. We will look at some of those today, how they are performing, and try to fathom if there is more upside.

Oracle CDS rates are now higher than during the Global Financial Crisis.

I reported on this the first time around when we hit the same level as the GFC, but now it is actually much higher. This is basically the premium on the cost of financing debt, and it is shocking.

For some, this could be a very big red flag for credit plumbing. Others say AI is different, but it makes it very difficult for Oracle to raise money to fund AI expansion on behalf of customers like OpenAI and others.

The U.S. is defending the yen.

Scott Bessent is the U.S. Treasury Secretary, and he is calling for the Fed to boost a facility to help support the Japanese yen. This is very unusual, and it puts renewed attention on the ties between these two nations.

This also highlights the importance of preventing the fiat currency from imploding. This is what the U.S. does not want, as it is no good for anybody. This is why we Bitcoin, because we know all of the fiat currencies will go to zero sooner or later.

The Japanese yen, which I think is a top-five currency on the planet, is on the cusp, but in comes the USA to save the day. Monitor this carefully.

The Crypto Fear and Greed fell back into extreme fear.

I believe the last week I did this, it was at 29, and now we are back to 25. This is a big

Read more

Today’s Nuggets

• FUD Layer – Coldcard & Narrative Overload

• Strategy (MSTR) – The Pivot That Hurts Sentiment

• Quiet Bullish Signals Beneath The Noise

• 10x Confirm BTC Bottom in August

• Why Despair Can Be The Opportunity

• BTC vs Global M2 Has Never Been Cheaper

• STRC Recovery - above 200 DMA

Monday is when we touch on Bitcoin and MicroStrategy, and today’s story is called The Last Optimist.

The adage is that when the last optimist leaves the room, it means we are at the bottom. The sentiment—at least on X and among some people after everything that happened last week—is essentially rock bottom, but the indicators say different.

This one is our usual monthly return matrix, which has been a bit different lately.

Sometimes you can look at seasonal patterns and get a clue as to where we are going to go, and sometimes it does not work. Technically, even though August is a red month on average, it is only red by a tiny fraction—a very small downturn typically during this time. The average return in August is about 0.5%.

Historically, August brings us into September, which is one of the worst months of the year. However, as we have learned over the last two years,

Read more